Bob Kraft Makes Some Uncharacteristic Statements

Bob Kraft is a great owner in a lot of ways. He makes a few statements here or there in which he mostly puts out the Patriotspeak. Nothing overly controversial, mostly positive and supportive statements. He's well respected in the community for keeping the team in Massachusetts not once, but twice. He gets involved with things like the recent labor dispute and was instrumental in progressing the talks, ensuring that football wouldn't suffer from the lockouts that have been plaguing sports like hockey and basketball recently. He doesn't skimp out, he spends up to the cap every season and has invested a lot of money into facilities at Patriot Place. He thinks big, he sets the tone for the organization and he's learned that a good owner knows to delegate and get out of his own way. That's why I was really surprised by some of the statements Kraft made at the owners meeting. Some of the lines that the media have been blowing up lately are not his usual fare.

"I don't answer to Tom Brady"

It's 100% true and when you add some more context he dovetails it nicely by pointing out that Brady's an important member of the team and saying that he spoke to Brady, but it's just such a combative reply. The guy just took a pay cut to improve your football team and he's the most beloved figure in the history of the organization, there has to be a more diplomatic way to phrase this.

"Wes Welker, just to be very clear, was our first choice to be with the team,"

Why would you ever say something like that? It sounds like something the Red Sox ownership would say. "Just so you know Danny, you're our second choice." It reminds me of what Red Sox ownership said about Carl Crawford after Theo Epstein left town.

Beyond these things, we got some insight into what happened with Wes Welker. The way Kraft tells it, there was a significant disparity in how they evaluated Welker compared to how he and his representatives evaluated him. Welker hit the open market and the Patriots started looking at other options. From how it sounds, when Welker approached them with the offer from Denver they had already committed themselves to Danny Amendola.


"Wednesday, I personally got a call from Wes and he told me about this offer from Denver. He called Bill [Belichick] as well. We met and we chatted. We have a lot of people, we've committed a lot of money to this inside position you have Gronk [Rob Gronkowski], you have [Aaron] Hernandez, you have Danny [Amendola] now it was just unfortunately a little bit too late.

"If he had called one day earlier, he would have been with us. I'm very sad about it and I wish he would have been with our team."

The belief was that the Amendola signing was a quick reaction to Wes Welker signing with Denver. The way it's portrayed by Kraft here the Amendola deal was finished first. Kraft went on to say that he felt the offer the Patriots gave Welker was the better deal because it had more guaranteed money and speculated that the Broncos would cut him after one season as none of the second year money is guaranteed and the cap hits are $4 Million for the first year and jumps to $8 Million for the second year. He might be right, but it still feels like he's crying over spilled milk, something I believed was beneath an organization that prides itself on professionalism.

Well The Classless Organization Does More Classless Stuff

Other than cheating to win Superbowls, the second best thing the Patriots do is not re-sign or get rid of impact players that they really need. Their GM has odd ways of doing things. We have seen this in the past when the Patriots traded Richard Seymour, Asante Samuel, Adam Viniteiri, among others and it has really hurt them for a long time. Hell for how long have the Patriots been looking for a pass rusher, in fact, they still haven't found one, we have to wait and see what Chandler Jones turns into. The same can be said for their secondary, it seems like there is a forever, rotating secondary and they are often ranked near the bottom of the list, and maybe is Adam Viniteiri is still on the team Bill kicks the 48 yard field goal in the Superbowl and they win, instead of going for it. The most peculiar thing about Wes Welker is, that the guys above got mega contracts, Wes got a 2 year 12 million dollar deal. That's 6 a year. For someone who has been over 100 catches and 1000 yards with Brady for 5 years, 6 million for 2 years seems awfully reasonable. Also the thing Wes had that a lot of other WRs don't is the camaraderie he has with Brady, look in the past how hard this is to grip for other WRs, where Chad Ochocinco, Brandon Lloyd, Joey Galloway, Torry Holt, Doug Gabriel and others have failed, are we 100% positive that Danny Amendola will be able to pick it up without a pitch.

Now lets move on to Wes' replacement, Danny Amendola. The Pats counter Welker to the Broncos by giving Amendola an asinine 5 year, 31 million dollar deal. I just don't get the logic of paying someone who is unproven in the system, injury prone, and less productive more money for more years. I guess, you can say they did the same thing with Wes essentially with the trade to get him from the Dolphins, but they at least traded for him. Maybe Belichick really likes white guys from Texas Tech, but I just don't think Amendola is an upgrade at all. If you had to have 2 years from Welker or Amendola on the Patriots you 100% take Welker. I would be willing to bet anything that Amendola misses more games than Welker did in his patriot career, this year (3).

Many Patriot fanboys will bring up the Welker drops or definitely the drop in the Superbowl, which you can put 50% on Brady btw. But that shouldn't matter in this, Welker had 5 seasons in which he went over 100 catches and 1000 yards with the Patriots, had a great rapport with Brady, it seems awfully like someone in the Patriots organization had a vendetta against him. They fucked with him last year, they were blatantly phasing him out this year and then lowballed him on an already fair deal.

Also, there are already reports close to brady that say he's infuriated by this whoel thing. “He’s got so much pressure on his shoulders now — again,” the source close to Brady told Mike Silver of Yahoo! Sports. “If the offense doesn’t perform at a high level, they’re screwed. This is unbelievable. It’s hard not to feel like they’ve sold him out.” So pissing off your star QB who took less money, is always a nice thing to do.

Maybe they just want an all injury prone offense with Gronk, Hernandez, Edleman and Amendola. Oh well.

Wes Welker Out, Danny Amendola In

The Patriots made some shocking moves yesterday that really have me perturbed. Wes Welker signed a 2-year contract for $12 Million with the Denver Broncos, one of the Patriots AFC rivals. Within a matter of hours the Patriots had signed St. Louis Rams Slot Receiver Danny Amendola to a 5-year contract for $31 Million, only $10 million of which is guaranteed money. On the surface this deal doesn't make much sense. Why would you break up one of the most productive quarterback/wide receiver duos in the history of football and then offer more money and years to a very similar player who has been less productive and has some durability questions?

First, a little information about Danny Amendola. As you can see from the graphic above, Amendola has been drawing comparisons to Wes Welker for his entire career at the NFL level, and with good reason. Amendola was literally Welker's replacement at Texas Tech after Welker went pro. They were both initially undrafted and had to sign as undrafted free agents. Welker was able to work his way onto the roster almost immediately where Amendola had to work his way up from the practice squad. They play similar roles with similar styles and have similar builds. Some people have noted that Amendola's production is also very similar to Wes Welker's numbers in Miami before coming to the Patriots.

Wes Welker 2006 Stats:
16 Games Played
67 Catches
99 Targets
687 Yards
10.3 Avg
1 TD

Danny Amendola 2012 Stats:
11 Games Played
63 Catches
101 Targets
666 Yards
10.6 Avg
3 TD

You'll notice that the only really substantial difference in these figures is in the games played category, and this has been the point where Amendola and Welker diverge. In Welker's career he has missed 3 games in the regular season and 1 playoff game in 2009. By comparison, Amendola has missed 20 games over the past two seasons with the Rams. Maybe it's just dumb luck that Welker's only serious injury, a torn ACL/MCL, came in week 17 and Danny Amendola's dislocated elbow came in the first game of the season. The same could be said about the dislocated clavicle injury that kept Amendola out of 3 games last year.

So let's take a hard look at some of the reasons the Patriots chose to move on from Welker to Amendola.

1) Wes Welker is a few years older than Amendola. We haven't seen Wes' numbers decline substantially as he's gotten older, but age tends to hit wide receivers pretty hard. Wes may be coming off of his prime and Amendola may be just coming into his prime.

2) Although the sum total of Amendola's deal has him getting more money per year than Wes' deal, only $10 Million of Amendola's deal is guaranteed money. Amendola's deal may be structured in such a way that his cap hit is low and the deal is backloaded with non-guaranteed money and the Patriots could cut ties with him relatively easily after two seasons without much issue. We may see this when the more precise terms of the deal are known.

3) Maybe there's some things about Welker that Bill Belichick and the Patriots are aware of about Wes Welker that we as outsiders are not. Does Wes have some concussion issues that have been kept under wraps? Is Wes a pain in the ass in the locker room and constantly complaining to Bill about how he's not getting paid? Does Bill see something in the film/practice field that makes him think that Wes can't keep up his production for very much longer?

4) Some of the advanced stats show that Amendola has a much better drop percentage than Welker. Drops in key moments have been the bane of Welker's career, maybe the Patriots were fed up with this deficiency in his game.

All things considered, I think I still would have taken Wes Welker over Danny Amendola. I think Amendola will fill the role well if he manages to stay on the football field, but part of me wonders if maybe the Patriots are overthinking in this scenario. Welker was playing at a high level and assuming that he was asking for the same figures he got from the Broncos the money was pretty reasonable and didn't handcuff the Patriots in the long term. He has had 6 seasons of experience working in the Patriots system and with Tom Brady. Part of me thinks that if it's not broken then don't fix it.

Breaking News: Broncos Sign Wes Welker (2 UPDATES)

It is sounding like it is a done deal. We don't have the years or the amount yet, but every expert seems to be saying that Welker is going to sign with the Broncos today.

My immediate reaction? This fucking sucks.

Now, we don't know the full story. Maybe he is heavily overpaid. Maybe the Patriots will go out and sign Pollard, Amendola, and Talib/Asomugha. Yet, this is feels wrong. Walker could end up being remember for two big drops rather than what he should be remember for which is being the first WR ever to have five 110-catch season.

It's a huge blow, and if it's true I wonder what Tom Brady thinks about all of this?

***UPDATE***

Sounds like it is 2 year deal. 


***UPDATED 2***

2 years $12 million. WTF?????????????????????????

NFL Free Agency Day 1 Round Up

NFL free agency opened up at 4 PM EST yesterday afternoon. For those hungry for some football talk, like myself, the expected flurry of activity was a nice appetizer before the NFL Draft in late April.

For the Patriots, this was a relatively quiet day. The only move they made that was somewhat unexpected was that they extended a Restricted Free Agent tender to incredibly hard to spell/pronounce backup tight end Michael Hoomanawanui. This adds a little depth behind Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. This might also indicate that Jake Ballard, the Tight End poached off of waivers from the Giants while on Injured Reserve in the offseason after tearing his ACL during the Super Bowl, may not be as far along in his rehab as the Patriots might have hoped. Guard Donald Thomas went to Indianapolis seeking a regular starting job, so some depth has been lost behind Logan Mankins and Nate Solder on the Offensive Line. Safety Patrick Chung signed with Philadelphia. Chung wasn't projected to be a starter and didn't see much playing time after he returned from injury. This is disappointing as another high round secondary pick goes bust for the Patriots. We saw some flashes of greatness from Chung. I recall a Monday Night Football game against Miami in 2010 where he blocked a punt for a TD, blocked a field goal for a TD and had a pick six. Unfortunately, he was oft injured and never justified the 34th overall selection that was used to acquire him in the draft. It wouldn't surprise me if I'm saying something similar about Ras-I Dowling when his rookie deal expires. Other than that, the Patriots "big 3" free agents (Welker, Talib and Vollmer) are all still on the market.

There were a bunch of tiny signings and releasings that I won't bother to get into, but here are some of the bigger things that happened yesterday.

-Hall of Fame Tight End Tony Gonzalez has decided to pull a Brett Favre and stave off retirement for another season with the Falcons.

-The biggest signing of the day was certainly the Dolphins signing Steelers wide receiver Mike Wallace. The deal is worth $60 million over five years and includes $30 million in guarantees. The Dolphins have money to spend and they didn't waste any time with Wallace. We'll see how Wallace transitions to life in Miami. I don't think that this deal makes Miami a contender for the AFC East crown, but they've still got money to spend. I think the Steelers are headed into a salary cap induced rebuilding cycle. They failed to make the playoffs last year and they seem to be losing some of their bigger playmakers with Wallace and James Harrison leaving the team. The AFC North should be interesting to watch next season.

-The biggest release of the day was Pro Bowl CB Nnamdi Asomugha from the Eagles. It'll be interesting to see how another high profile corner hitting the market effects the price on CBs on the Patriots radar like Sean Smith and Aqib Talib.

There's still plenty of quality free agents out there and plenty of teams with cap space to burn, I'd expect to hear of more signings today.

Patriots Have Made No Offer To Welker

As of early Tuesday afternoon, wide receiver Wes Welker was waiting for his first contract offer from the Patriots, according to Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network.

I really don't know what to believe anymore. We had reports that they had been working on a deal for awhile now. They we had a report that Welker doesn't like the Patriots, then another said they were talking again, and then another that said he was going to test the market.

It's hard to picture him anywhere else, but here. I am really split on whether he will be back or not. If you asked me 2-3 weeks ago I would've said 90%, but with the market limited and the overspending we saw on free agent WRs last year, maybe someone is willing to give him a blockbuster deal.

Welker is just such an interesting case. He isn't big, and he isn't a "game breaker" like guys like Wallace, but if you have a quick throwing pass happy offense I really can't think of a better WR to have. It's also about what Wes Welker wants. If he is open to any team and looking for just top dollar there could be endless amount of interest, but if he is looking for team that are contenders AND have the cap room to sign him the market changes a lot.

The Broncos make a lot of sense, but they really don't have the cap room and have holes to fill on defense. The Saints don't have any cap room, the Packers would be great for Welker but I don't see them signing a big name free agent WR even if they lose Jennings, I guess the Falcons could be an option, and have I this odd feeling the Colts could get involved.

It's just really tough to figure out a market for Welker, but NFL signing have shocked me in the past so anything could happen. I still say he comes back.

Welker Wants to Test the Free Agent Market

The reports about Wes Welker's contract negotiations with the Patriots have been all over the spectrum lately. Some reports make it seem like it's basically a done deal. Other reports make it seem like there's still some bad blood from the last negotiations and his drop in playing time early last season that is hindering the negotiations. I read one report discussing the Patriots eyeing Rams WR Danny Amendola as a replacement for Welker. I suppose none of these are mutually exclusive. Welker could be a little upset about how the last year has gone but still be making progress on a long term deal and the Patriots would be wise to have a plan B strategy if they can't agree on figures with Wes. Still, I think it provides some conflicting views about where the two sides are in putting a deal together.

Adam Schefter recently tweeted the following:
"Patriots free-agent WR Wes Welker has no plans to re-sign with New England before first testing the free-agent market next week."

I don't think that this is necessarily a bad thing for the Patriots. Welker has a reputation as being an effective cog in the Patriots system, but I think another team looking at him would have to wonder if he can be as effective in their system. Welker was effective in two seasons at Miami, but his numbers truly exploded when he came to New England. He's not like Calvin Johnson where you're simply blown away by his talent and athleticism, Welker's gifts are more subtle. He creates quick seperation, he's slippery enough to get past that first contact for some YAC and he can get nailed catching a pass over the middle, hold onto the ball and spring right back up and jog to the huddle. In a year where many teams seem to be struggling with their cap management, it's hard for me to imagine another club breaking the bank for him.

Welker Has "Disdain" For Patriots?

According to a report from Yahoo! Sports‘ Jason Cole, Welker has a “somewhat mild disdain for the Patriots right now,” apparently due to his treatment at the start of last season. In a season-opening victory over the Titans, Welker was targeted just five times (three receptions), and “that bit of tweaking stuck in Welker’s craw all season,” Cole writes, adding that “there’s a little paranoia in the Welker camp these days about his role with the Pats.”

I am sure that Welker was not pumped about what was going on with him at the beginning of last season. He has every right to be annoyed, that being said, the last part of that statement "paranoia about his role with the Patriots" is fucking insane. Welker ended up with 118 receptions for 1,354 yards and six touchdowns last year, how much more about his role does he need to know. I think it became pretty obvious what he means to the Patriots, and I think that there will be a contract done soon.

No other team (with the exception of maybe the Broncos/Packers) would be able to use Welker the way he has been used here. The Patriots made his career, and Welker has paid them back. I think there is a deal that can be worked out here, and this "disdain" is really nothing more than digging up history. This will be Welker's last contract, I think the Patriots will pay him just as much as any other franchise, and I think that will be enough for both side. I mean 3 more good years here and he (if he isn't already) will be the greatest Patriots WR of all-time, Patriots Hall of Fame, and his number retired right next to Brady's. 

Robert Kraft: "I have heard that it's been reported Tom made demands about who he wanted us to sign. Absolutely not. It never happened."

In a recent interview discussing Tom Brady's new contract I thought that Bob Kraft dropped an interesting tidbit that apparently there was no agreement from the team that they would use the salary cap space saved by his new deal to sign a particular player.

I have heard that it's been reported Tom made demands about who he wanted us to sign. Absolutely not. It never happened.

In the immediate aftermath of the deal it was widely speculated that there was an implied agreement that the Patriots would use the additional cap space provided to sign Wes Welker, one of Brady's favorite targets since his arrival in 2007, to the elusive contract they have been working on since last offseason. It seemed to make sense given that the salary cap savings seemed to coincide closely with Wes Welker's asking price. It's possible that this is just a negotiation tactic from the Patriots organization. If Kraft had said "Yes, we promised Tom that if we took this deal we'd re-sign Wes for him" it would certainly give Welker the leverage in the negotiations going forward. With the franchise tag deadline approaching and free agency looming it will be interesting to see how this situation unfolds. I have to imagine that they work out some sort of deal with Welker. Welker likes it here and I have to imagine the Patriots value him more highly than any other club would.

The rest of the interview doesn't say too much. Kraft insisted that there was no implied renegotiation planned for later in Brady's contract and shared his desire for Tom Brady to retire a Patriot rather than have an iconic player finish his career with another team like Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, etc. It does suggest that perhaps Tom Brady will retire after this new 5-year deal expires.

I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

-The Captain

BREAKING NEWS: Patriots and Brady Agree to Contract Extension

The New England Patriots and Tom Brady agreed to a contract extension that would keep Brady in Foxborough until 2017, when he would be 40 years old. The additional 3 years are reported to be worth a total of $27 million. The restructured deal also creates $15 million in cap space for the Patriots the next 2 seasons.

Two things jump out at me after reading this.

#1: How Tom Brady, compared to Peyton Manning, doesn't seem to mind if he's the highest paid QB in the NFL or not. He's getting paid millions, but it doesn't become an ego thing with him like it does with his colleagues. He's confident enough that he doesn't need to be the highest paid, or be in the most commercials.

#2: There are rumors that the Patriots and Wes Welker are close to a long-term deal. That deal is rumored to be worth about $8 million per season. And that's close to how much cap space the Patriots created with this move. I know this is quite a conclusion to jump to. We're taking a fact, adding a rumor, and trying to produce a conclusion. However, the pieces of the puzzle seem to fit together very well.

-The Captain