My Patriots Draft Thoughts

With all 3 Boston teams off last night I thought I might jot down my own take on the Patriots 2013 draft class and some counterpoint to The Captain.

The Captain has been pretty vocal about his position of unquestioningly supporting every decision Bill Belichick makes in this draft and has largely been his response to a free agency period that left a lot of Patriots fans scratching their heads. I don't think that this is a bad position to take and I drink plenty of the BB Kool Aid myself. Bill's personnel decisions work out a reasonable amount of the time and if not he usually puts himself in a position where he didn't really lose much, cuts the player and moves on. I also think sometimes people forget that his job in getting value out of the draft is harder when you're consistently getting natural picks that fall in the later part of the round almost every season. The lost first rounder to Spygate was a significant setback as well. The Captain is also correct that Boston is not a college football town. Most of the fans and sports media in this town, myself included, might know a little about BC football but not much else. That said, our opinions on these high level prospects coming out of college aren't derived from throwing at a dart board. I recognize that Bill has expertise in this field, but I recognize that other well informed people have formed and publicized their opinions on these players and Bill's selections as well and don't agree with the course/players he has taken. These media personalities get it wrong a reasonable percentage of the time, but Bill has also made plenty of picks that looking back haven't panned out.

The Captain's go to must answer question in his criticism of those who are critical of Bill is "Who would you take at 29?", but there's more to the equation than that prior to being put on the clock with the 29th pick. None of the talent at 29 was particularly exciting, but there did seem to be some highly regarded talent that projected to contribute immediately higher up in the draft and this was reportedly a buyer's market. This puts me in the unfortunate position of speculation, but what would it have cost for the Patriots to move up into picks 1-8 and get somebody like Tavon Austin? That's a question I'm never going to be able to answer definitively, but based on the reports of teams wanting to move down I believe there may have been a bargain to be had here. I'm just using Austin as an example here because I think wide receiver is a position of need and Austin was well regarded by talent experts, but I think there had to be somebody in this draft that was a high probability elite player that would have been a significant upgrade at a position of need and the Patriots could have sacrificed some later picks to move up and get him.

The problem I have with the Patriots approach to this draft is that they approached it in a way that would better suit a rebuilding team or a team with a lot of holes. I would really like the Patriots trade down if I were the Ravens. The Ravens had a mass exodus of players after winning the Super Bowl and they don't have the cap room to fill all the holes it seems. Trading a quality elite player for a quantity of competent warm bodies would make a lot of sense in that situation. After the free agency period and coming into the draft I feel like the Patriots are a mostly complete team and upgrading to an elite player at a position of need could be what puts them over the top. Instead of that I feel like we got some more depth and lottery tickets. This is all compounded by the fact that Tom Brady is getting older and I think everything possible should be done to maximize the opportunity to win a championship while he is still here. I think Tom himself realized this when he agreed to such a team friendly deal for what will most likely be the remainder of his NFL career.

I also don't understand why Bill seems to get so aggressive to pick players that nobody else seems to be interested in. As a coach who seems to place such a high value on draft picks it's strange to see him burn them on players that are projected to go much later in the draft  or go undrafted altogether. I can understand that maybe he/his scouts see something in a player that other teams/scouts don't, but why not try to maximize that advantage? Was he really that concerned that somebody was going to swoop in and get Tavon Wilson from him that he needed to burn the 48th overall pick to get him? People were projecting him as being a 7th rounder. You could snag him with a 4th or 5th rounder just to be on the safe side and still net a huge amount of value. The same could be said of the Duron Harmon pick this year. Maybe the Sports media completely misread the market on both of these guys and I was satisfied with Wilson's contribution as a rookie last year, but it seems like a significant value loss for minimal risk. It's possible that Bill knew something everybody else didn't about other teams being interested in these guys, but barring that he either misread or disregarded the market demand for these players.

I'm not incensed by any of these picks or think that they're serious errors in judgment by any stretch, but the picks don't make much sense to me and knowing Bill I don't think we're ever going to really get his actual thought process behind his picks which will make it more frustrating.

Felger and Mazz Were Morons Yesterday

So yesterday afternoon I would turn on Felger and Mazz, then after 3 minutes of listening to their inane, ignorant, and repetitive whining about the Patriots Draft, I'd have to turn off the radio.

What pisses me off is that they repeatedly admit that they don't know much about these college players, and just before they say they disagree with what the Patriots did, they say "I don't understand." They don't understand, so they disagree.

They questioned the Patriots trading out of the 1st round. But this was the most unremarkable, mediocre draft in recent memory. Unless you were looking for offensive tackles, this draft was like a buffet of bologna sandwiches. Some had mustard. Some didn't. None of them were worth cutting in line. And maybe it was better to wait longer to get more.

Neither Felger and Mazz asked or answered a simple question: Who would you have taken at 29? Who was so good at 29? All of the players out there, apart from a few taken at the front of the draft, were if-he-can players. All of the players available were chances. It made sense to take more chances than just one.

And other teams felt the same. The Chiefs waited as long as possible for someone to offer to take the #1 overall pick. Other teams traded out. It seemed like only the Jets and Vikings truly wanted to pick in the First Round.

Then Felger and Mazz criticized the amount of Rutgers players taken. Felger got emotional and accused the Patriots of taking players because Bill Belichick's son Stephen Belichick might have known them in class.

Rutgers had the #4 defense in college football last year (behind Alabama, Notre Dame, and BYU). They allowed 14.2 points per game, and only 20 offensive TDs (the same amount Bama allowed) in 13 games. The Patriots drafted two DBs and a linebacker from that defense. I doubt they went into the Draft planning to take three Scarlet Knights. But in the later rounds they were still there. They took three players from a good defense, who were coached well, who might fit into the Patriots system.

No matter what happened in the Draft, Felger and Mazz were going to have a Monday show revolving around how the Patriots think they're smarter than everyone else. They have fallen in love with that narrative based on selective facts, uninformed opinions, and emotional baggage from the 2005 Patriots offseason.

I know writing a blog post about what a pair of jabbering sportsradio personalities fill their 4 hours with is kind of lame. But these two reached an uncharted level of simple-mindedness, emotionalism, and whining. Felger was spouting baseless conspiracy theories. Mazz sounded like a C- student complaining that he didn't understand the test, even though the A and B students had no complaints. Mazz sounded the most like the kid who doesn't get algebra when Mike from Wayland called, and Mazz thought he caught the caller on a mistake. "Yes you did! Yes you did! Yes you did!"

I'm surprised Mazz didn't say "I am rubber, you are glue," or "Takes one to know one."

Every fact that was brought up to refute Felger's theories was dismissed. Every questioning of Mazz's complaints was misunderstood.

They don't understand, so they get frustrated. THERE WAS NOBODY BLATANTLY GOOD AT 29. Rutgers had a great defense. The Patriots have drafted well recently. They traded up last year when suitable talent was available. This year the situation was different. But such a thought is too complex for them to understand. And instead of trying to understand something that strays from the narrative they've constructed, they strongly disagree with it.

I'm done venting. Give Mike from Wayland his own segment on the show. Even if it's just to school Felger.

-The Captain

Patriots Have Decent, Unspectacular Draft

If you were expecting much from this draft, you're either very optimistic, very unrealistic, or very stupid. The draft as a whole was low on talent. Can you remember the last time the team picking #1 overall waited as long as possible for someone to trade for their pick? The Pats were also picking at the tail-end of the draft. And unlike past years they didn't have many picks coming in.

All things considered, I think the Patriots did okay. They found some decent talent that could contribute in different ways. They found some guys who have problems, and if those problems are sorted they can be very good. They also made a deal to acquire LeGarrette Blount, who ran for over 1,000 yards in 2010. They got him for a 7th round pick and an Olympic runner who wants to be a part-time football player.

The Pats traded out of the first-round, which upset some people, seemingly more on principle than on losing a chance to get any specific player. Everyone I've heard complain about this trade has been unable to answer the question "Who would you have taken at 29?" These people have emotional baggage from previous drafts. They're mad at the idea of trading a pick (even though other teams did it), not this specific instance. The Patriots made a good deal to add to their number of selections in a very hit-or-miss, mediocre draft.

And here are my thoughts on who they took...

Jamie Collins, an OLB/DE was their first pick. Collins had a great junior year, but "dogged it" his senior year. He was playing for a very bad team. Some teams stay away from guys with his kind of reputation. But a good team with a good coach can take the chance. The logic is simple. If he tries, he's athletic enough to find a place on the field. If he doesn't, he's gone.

Then they drafted WR Aaron Dobson out of Marshall. He played as an X receiver with a bad QB. Now he'll be in the mix with a good QB. With the lack of current depth at WR on the team, Dobson has a chance to get reps. He just needs to learn the playbook, which is always tough for new players.

The Patriots drafted a pair of DBs from Rutgers in the 3rd round. They'll join former Scarlet Knight Devin McCourty. For the first time in years, the Patriots have a secondary that is not a complete mess at the top of the depth chart. Talib was a key player whose loss hurt in the playoffs. Dennard is an early-round talent who could be even better in his sophomore season. What the Pats need is depth in the secondary. The dropoff from Talib to backups is what killed them in the AFC Championship game. Neither of these guys seem like they'll be big impact players, but both should get playing time in certain situations. And that's what the Pats desperately needed from their defensive backfield.

In the 4th round the Pats took another WR, Josh Boyce out of TCU. He is a combine stud. Fast, agile, can be an outside-the-numbers threat. But he's inconsistent with blocking and catching. He entered the Draft as a junior so he might be able to hone those skills. If he can, he'll be very productive. If not, he'll be an obscure memory and an Arena League All-Star.

Michael Buchannan is a 6' 5" frame that needs to be filled in. He needs strength. Plain and simple. He's a DE/OLB that can drop into coverage, but he needs to get bigger. He also has a DUI arrest. So stop drinking and start lifting, Michael.

The Patriots ended their draft by taking their third Rutgers defensive player, linebacker Steve Beauharnais. He's small, but smart. He can play in different situations, including special teams. As far as 7th round picks go, he's not bad. Lots of upside here. Undersized LBs have done well on this team before.

So no players who will have jerseys sold at the Pro Shop anytime soon. The players that have the most upside also have downsides. There are a lot of "if he can" players here. So maybe one or two hit big. Maybe one or two find a role as a backup. And the rest get real jobs.

-The Captain

I Don't Know What the Patriots Will Do Tonight, But I Already Agree With It

In Bill We Trust. Some people say that with sarcasm. Then they list all the mistakes that "Bellichick the GM" has made over the years. Then they rant about Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel.

Belichick isn't perfect. The Patriots make mistakes. But in the long run it's smart to bet on them. So whatever the Pats do tonight, it's probably a good, smart move.

I have no idea who most of these college players are. I also have no idea how they will do in the NFL. And guess what, nobody else does. Although people like to think they do. People like to think they know the game more than Belichick. Which is preposterous. I don't think anybody understands the game and the cap like the Patriots and Belichick. Certainly not some sportsradio hindsightist, and certainly not some token fan.

Sorry, you don't know as much as him. Not even close.

I'm not saying you should agree with everything the Patriots do. I'm saying that if you don't get it, just roll with it. Why get stressed?

Do you understand everything about human anatomy? Do you understand how to pilot a plane? Do you get the bond market? You trust doctors to take care of you when you're sick, you trust a stranger with wings pinned on his shirt to control an airplane, and you give someone in a suit money for your retirement. You trust these people because they're experts.

Guess what, Bill Belichick is an expert. The proof is in the results. 13 seasons running this team, 10 division titles, 5 conference titles, 3 Super Bowls. He's the most successful GM in franchise history, and the most successful current GM in the New England sports scene. Yet "Bellichick the GM" probably gets more criticism than Ainge, Chiarelli, and Cherington combined.

Why? Because people sometimes don't understand what he's doing. And he won't bother to explain it. And he also doesn't get emotionally attached to players like fans do.

He dropped Lawyer Milloy and was heavily criticized for it. He cut ties with Randy Moss and people scratched their heads. His doubters enjoy bringing up Seymour and Samuel, but how did the Raiders and Eagles do with them? These doubters get headaches if you say "well they got cap room when they didn't sign these guys." They don't want to allow thought to interrupt their emotional outbursts.

Now it's Wes Welker. Never has a region been so emotionally devastated because a stranger was leaving. People were pissed at Belichick. Some blamed the "Patriots way" as the reason the Pats didn't win the Super Bowl these past two seasons. These same people conveniently forgot Welker's huge drops in big games. The roster was good enough to win, the players didn't execute.

And let's not forget who acquired Welker in the first place. Belichick the GM. Welker was one of those Wal-Mart bargain value players that people chide Belichick for acquiring.

So I have no clue what will happen tonight. Will the Pats trade up? Will they trade down? Will they trade Mallett? Will they take a wide receiver? A cornerback?

I don't know. Belichick is the doctor/pilot/investment banker/lawyer/accountant. He's the professional. I'll let him do surgery, fly the plane, pick the stock, file the lawsuit, do my taxes. He knows what he's doing. He isn't always right (thankfully he's not a surgeon), but investors don't always pick the right stock. The good ones are right enough to make a profit. And judging by the silver and gold in the Patriots Hall of Fame, and on Bill's fingers, he seems to have invested wisely.

It's not worth getting stressed out over, people. It's very relaxing to just sit back and enjoy the show. It is, after all, a game. Have some fun watching it and thinking about it.

Wes Welker Out, Danny Amendola In

The Patriots made some shocking moves yesterday that really have me perturbed. Wes Welker signed a 2-year contract for $12 Million with the Denver Broncos, one of the Patriots AFC rivals. Within a matter of hours the Patriots had signed St. Louis Rams Slot Receiver Danny Amendola to a 5-year contract for $31 Million, only $10 million of which is guaranteed money. On the surface this deal doesn't make much sense. Why would you break up one of the most productive quarterback/wide receiver duos in the history of football and then offer more money and years to a very similar player who has been less productive and has some durability questions?

First, a little information about Danny Amendola. As you can see from the graphic above, Amendola has been drawing comparisons to Wes Welker for his entire career at the NFL level, and with good reason. Amendola was literally Welker's replacement at Texas Tech after Welker went pro. They were both initially undrafted and had to sign as undrafted free agents. Welker was able to work his way onto the roster almost immediately where Amendola had to work his way up from the practice squad. They play similar roles with similar styles and have similar builds. Some people have noted that Amendola's production is also very similar to Wes Welker's numbers in Miami before coming to the Patriots.

Wes Welker 2006 Stats:
16 Games Played
67 Catches
99 Targets
687 Yards
10.3 Avg
1 TD

Danny Amendola 2012 Stats:
11 Games Played
63 Catches
101 Targets
666 Yards
10.6 Avg
3 TD

You'll notice that the only really substantial difference in these figures is in the games played category, and this has been the point where Amendola and Welker diverge. In Welker's career he has missed 3 games in the regular season and 1 playoff game in 2009. By comparison, Amendola has missed 20 games over the past two seasons with the Rams. Maybe it's just dumb luck that Welker's only serious injury, a torn ACL/MCL, came in week 17 and Danny Amendola's dislocated elbow came in the first game of the season. The same could be said about the dislocated clavicle injury that kept Amendola out of 3 games last year.

So let's take a hard look at some of the reasons the Patriots chose to move on from Welker to Amendola.

1) Wes Welker is a few years older than Amendola. We haven't seen Wes' numbers decline substantially as he's gotten older, but age tends to hit wide receivers pretty hard. Wes may be coming off of his prime and Amendola may be just coming into his prime.

2) Although the sum total of Amendola's deal has him getting more money per year than Wes' deal, only $10 Million of Amendola's deal is guaranteed money. Amendola's deal may be structured in such a way that his cap hit is low and the deal is backloaded with non-guaranteed money and the Patriots could cut ties with him relatively easily after two seasons without much issue. We may see this when the more precise terms of the deal are known.

3) Maybe there's some things about Welker that Bill Belichick and the Patriots are aware of about Wes Welker that we as outsiders are not. Does Wes have some concussion issues that have been kept under wraps? Is Wes a pain in the ass in the locker room and constantly complaining to Bill about how he's not getting paid? Does Bill see something in the film/practice field that makes him think that Wes can't keep up his production for very much longer?

4) Some of the advanced stats show that Amendola has a much better drop percentage than Welker. Drops in key moments have been the bane of Welker's career, maybe the Patriots were fed up with this deficiency in his game.

All things considered, I think I still would have taken Wes Welker over Danny Amendola. I think Amendola will fill the role well if he manages to stay on the football field, but part of me wonders if maybe the Patriots are overthinking in this scenario. Welker was playing at a high level and assuming that he was asking for the same figures he got from the Broncos the money was pretty reasonable and didn't handcuff the Patriots in the long term. He has had 6 seasons of experience working in the Patriots system and with Tom Brady. Part of me thinks that if it's not broken then don't fix it.

Robert Kraft: "I have heard that it's been reported Tom made demands about who he wanted us to sign. Absolutely not. It never happened."

In a recent interview discussing Tom Brady's new contract I thought that Bob Kraft dropped an interesting tidbit that apparently there was no agreement from the team that they would use the salary cap space saved by his new deal to sign a particular player.

I have heard that it's been reported Tom made demands about who he wanted us to sign. Absolutely not. It never happened.

In the immediate aftermath of the deal it was widely speculated that there was an implied agreement that the Patriots would use the additional cap space provided to sign Wes Welker, one of Brady's favorite targets since his arrival in 2007, to the elusive contract they have been working on since last offseason. It seemed to make sense given that the salary cap savings seemed to coincide closely with Wes Welker's asking price. It's possible that this is just a negotiation tactic from the Patriots organization. If Kraft had said "Yes, we promised Tom that if we took this deal we'd re-sign Wes for him" it would certainly give Welker the leverage in the negotiations going forward. With the franchise tag deadline approaching and free agency looming it will be interesting to see how this situation unfolds. I have to imagine that they work out some sort of deal with Welker. Welker likes it here and I have to imagine the Patriots value him more highly than any other club would.

The rest of the interview doesn't say too much. Kraft insisted that there was no implied renegotiation planned for later in Brady's contract and shared his desire for Tom Brady to retire a Patriot rather than have an iconic player finish his career with another team like Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, etc. It does suggest that perhaps Tom Brady will retire after this new 5-year deal expires.

I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

-The Captain

Basically Bill Belichick and Gronk Want To Blow Kobe Back to Back

"I'm sitting there on the bench, just beside myself, burning with frustration, and I look over and Bill Belichick is walking toward me," Kobe recalled. "I had never met him. Never spoken to him. He had courtside seats across from our bench, and with 20 seconds left in the game, he came over and said, 'Don't you worry about this. I know what you are going through. We just lost a tough one ourselves [to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII]. Just bounce back. Be ready next year.'

"He didn't have to say that. The clock was winding down, we were getting ready to walk off. I thought it was really cool. Respect across our professions."

Since then, Belichick and Bryant habitually have talked shop when Kobe comes to Boston. Last season, Belichick visited the Lakers' locker room and shared some pearls of coaching wisdom.

"He talked to me about how he coaches the game, how he minimizes mistakes, the value of a possession," Kobe reported. "Very interesting topics."

In spite of his newfound respect for the HC of the New England Patriots, Kobe said he hasn't switched pro football allegiances.

"No, I'm an Eagles fan, for better or for worse," he said. "I"ve got my fingers crossed that this Chip Kelly dude will work out."

Asked if Belichick would be visiting with him on Thursday, Bryant answered, "I'm hoping Gronk will be there. I like him. He seems to perform at a high level every time out. Last time we were in town we talked for a little bit. He was a fun guy.

"Everyone is so worked up about what he did [in Vegas]. It's funny. If there were camera phones back in the day, the biggest athletes in the world would have had a lot of explaining to do." ESPN

I thought I heard it all but Belichick wanting to blow Kobe every chance he has, has to be one of the biggest slaps in the face to Boston. Visiting the Lakers locker room and giving them words of advice? What the fuck is that about! Jesus talk about having no respect for a city that loves you. The Lakers throughout history have been the Celtics biggest rivalry and hearing about how Bill has a secret crush on Kobe and how Gronk double teams Vanessa is outrageous. I guess this is what happens with people who are similar to each other, Kobe is a dick and cheats on his wife, Belichick is a dick and cheats the game of football.

In my eyes this is way worse than Johnny Damon going to the Yankees or Judas going to play with the Queen in South Beach.