Patriots Free Agency Moves

I don't really understand what the Patriots are doing this offseason in free agency. I don't understand why we're dropping Wes Welker for Danny Amendola for approximately the same money. I don't understand why we're paying Kyle Arrington so much money. In an offseason where the Patriots figured to be big players in free agency because of their ample cap room in a buyer's market they seem to still be doing their shopping at the bargain rack picking up role players, older players that are past their prime, the poor man's Wes Welker and a few internal signings. I thought the Patriots would probably sign most of their effective free agents back, maybe add an impact player or two to try to get this team over the hump, but so far it seems like they're gutting large chunks of the team. Let's have a look at some of the more recent moves from the Patriots.

1) Brandon Lloyd was released by the Patriots. He was due a bonus and had a large cap hit coming if they didn't release him. His catches and yards were pretty solid, but he was light on YAC and TDs. He was a master of making easy catches look hard and hard catches look easy. He made some amazing fingertip catches while falling out of bounds with both feet hugging the out of bounds line and then he'd drop one that hit him right in the numbers with nobody around him. I like him a bit more than the Captain seems to. He wasn't 2007 Randy Moss, but he also wasn't Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway, Chad Jackson or any of the other wide receivers who have failed to get on the same page with Brady over the years. If he was getting an absurd amount of money I would be all for cutting him, but the money seemed pretty reasonable given his production. The Patriots tried to work out a new deal, but it didn't come together and he was released. Reportedly, he had some personality issues. We didn't hear much about Lloyd in the media, but maybe it was a bigger problem in the locker room than outsiders realize.

2) Former Cardinals safety Adrian Wilson has signed with the Patriots. It's a little hard to judge this deal because I'm having a hard time finding the exact terms of the deal. His wikipedia page says it's a 3-year deal, but the source they cite on ESPN says nothing about it. Wilson is getting older at 33 years of age. He's a 5-time Pro Bowler and 4-time All-pro and won both accolades as recently as 2011. Last season he was pushed into a reduced role with the Cardinals and came in for sub packages and was cut after the season. This seems like a "see what he's got left in the tank" move. Many people feel that the 6' 3" 230 lb Wilson is the hard-hitting, physical safety that Rodney Harrison suggested that the Patriots need to add on defense. Wilson's career trajectory is not unlike Rodney Harrison's when he came to New England. They both spent ample time with a relatively unsuccessful franchise, had one conference championship, some Pro-Bowl appearances and both have an impressive ability to generate sacks for a defensive back (Rodney finished his career in the 30 sack/30 Interception club, the only other member being Ray Lewis. Wilson is currently one of six members of the 25/25 club).Assuming that the Patriots didn't give him a fortune in guaranteed money I like this move.

3) The Patriots re-signed Aqib Talib to a 1-year deal. Again, there's a lack of details on the money/guaranteed money, which makes it hard to judge the deal. I'm glad to have Talib back in the fold for another season. He's young, talented and upon arriving the secondary seemed to solidify immediately. His numbers weren't tremendous, but you have to take into account that he was often covering the opponent's top receiver.

4) They signed ex-Falcon offensive tackle Will Svitek to a 1-year $1 Million deal. Even after doing some research I don't know much about Svitek. He started 10 games for the Falcons in 2011 and missed last season with an arm injury. He missed all of the 2008 season after he was released by the Chiefs. He's from the Czech Republic. Not much to say here, probably just a depth signing.

5) They signed LB Niko Koutouvides to a 1-year deal. Koutouvides is primarily a special teams player.

6) The Patriots signed ex-Bills WR Donald Jones to a 3-year $4.155 Million deal. He was alright with the Bills, but nothing special. His best games seemed to come against the Patriots, but given how bad the Patriots secondary was last year that's not surprising.  The deal has no guaranteed money up front whatsoever. He finished last season on injured reserve with an "undisclosed illness" and it came up that he had a minor kidney issue at the NFL Scouting Combine in 2010, so maybe that's causing more issues. It's a no risk deal to the Patriots, so I'm pretty ambivalent about the deal.

I Would Not Miss Brandon Lloyd

74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. 74 catches, 911 yards. All week, whenever Brandon Lloyd has been discussed, these figures were repeated. Over. And over. And over.

I'm not impressed. Not at all.

On the surface 74 catches and 911 yards seems productive. Especially compared to what Chad Ochocinco gave the Pats in 2011. However, other numbers tell a different story about Brandon Lloyd's season. He was soft, unreliable, and not explosive at all. Numbers prove it.

Before I delve into those numbers, how many catches and yards would Lloyd have had if Hernandez, Gronkowski, and Edelman been healthy all season? I'd say 55 catches and 650 yards would be fair. So that 74-911 is partially due to Brady's other options missing time.

Brandon Lloyd was 2nd on this team with 74 receptions. But was 5th in Yards After the Catch (YAC). With only 180 YAC from 74 receptions, that works out to be an average of 2.43 yards after the catch per reception. That's abysmal. Especially for a so-called "outside the numbers" receiver. Lloyd fell to the ground quickly and skedaddled out of bounds at the first sign of trouble. He was soft.

As a team, the Patriots had over 2,000 total YAC. Lloyd's contribution to that was a measly 8.9%. Lloyd's 2.43 YAC per Reception was the worst among Patriots with 20+ catches. Danny Woodhead was the best in that category with 6.55, followed by Julian Edelman at 6.48, then Rob Gronkowski at 5.55, Wes Welker at 5.25, and Aaron Hernandez at 3.82. All but Hernandez doubled Lloyd's production after the catch.

Another stat demonstrates Lloyd's inconsistency and unreliability. All season long, he made absurdly difficult catches, but struggled with the easy ones. He was targeted 130 times (only Welker was targeted more at 174) and managed to catch the ball 74 times. That's 56.9%. And that's for a guy who spends most of his time on the outside, not in the clustered middle of the field. 56 times this season, Brady threw the ball in his direction and Lloyd didn't catch it.

Welker caught 67.8% of his targets, Gronkowski 70%, Hernandez 61%, Woodhead 73%, Edelman 66%. Whenever Lloyd was on the field, he was Brady's least reliable target.

Lloyd was inconsistent from play to play, and was also inconsistent from week to week. He only had four games with 80+ yards. And only eight games with 50+ yards.

Finally, Lloyd was not explosive at all. He had 10 catches of 20 yards or more. So 64 of his receptions were for 19 or less. In the NFL last season, 55 players had 10+ catches of 20+ yards, so his 10 aren't stunning (especially considering his 130 targets). Lloyd only had 2 catches of 30+ yards. He averaged 12.3 yards per catch, which was a career low.

He did catch 50 first downs, which was 2nd only behind Welker's 74. Then again, the Pats had 256 receiving first downs, so his contribution was less than a fifth. And the Patriots ran for 151 more first downs (407 total), so his contribution is more like an eighth (12.3%).

I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a problem and needs to go. He was kind of productive, in his own way. But, he was also soft, limited, not explosive, inconsistent, unreliable.

Replacing Lloyd's 74 catches and 911 receptions might prove difficult. But getting more meaningful production from someone else won't be hard at all.

-The Captain

Patriots Sick Of Brandon Lloyd?

“Everybody [is sick of Lloyd],” Bedard said. “I was surprised at that. I hadn’t really heard that until I talked to a bunch of people this week. If you polled people in the Patriots organization, from the coaches to the players, I’d say a good majority of them would not want Brandon Lloyd back. “He wasn’t terrible, but he’s just so inconsistent — not only on the field, but personality-wise. It just grinds on you after a while (WEEI).”

We haven't heard much of this, but you usually wouldn't with the Patriots. That being said, it really shouldn't surprise anyone. He had problems with coaches in Denver, and St. Louis, so there is obviously something to this. What it comes down to is whether or not they can replace him. He still had 900+ yards, and 4 TDs, so it's not like he sucked. As of right now, the Patriots might not have Welker back (though I think he will), so they can't just throw him away.

When the Patriots sign Looyd though they built his contract in a very smart way. If they decide to go in another direction they can cut him and  avoid paying him a $3 million option bonus and save $4.9 million against the cap in 2013. So, the Patriots could have ample cap room to make a run at another WR (Wallace, Bowe, Jennings, Amendola, ect).

I am kind of split on this. I say that because WRs are always a pain in the ass, and I feel that most have a shelf life of 3 years before they wear out their welcome. That being said, has he burned through that already? If he has then there are certainly other options out there. 

Most reports seem to be leaning towards him being cut.