Wes Welker Out, Danny Amendola In

The Patriots made some shocking moves yesterday that really have me perturbed. Wes Welker signed a 2-year contract for $12 Million with the Denver Broncos, one of the Patriots AFC rivals. Within a matter of hours the Patriots had signed St. Louis Rams Slot Receiver Danny Amendola to a 5-year contract for $31 Million, only $10 million of which is guaranteed money. On the surface this deal doesn't make much sense. Why would you break up one of the most productive quarterback/wide receiver duos in the history of football and then offer more money and years to a very similar player who has been less productive and has some durability questions?

First, a little information about Danny Amendola. As you can see from the graphic above, Amendola has been drawing comparisons to Wes Welker for his entire career at the NFL level, and with good reason. Amendola was literally Welker's replacement at Texas Tech after Welker went pro. They were both initially undrafted and had to sign as undrafted free agents. Welker was able to work his way onto the roster almost immediately where Amendola had to work his way up from the practice squad. They play similar roles with similar styles and have similar builds. Some people have noted that Amendola's production is also very similar to Wes Welker's numbers in Miami before coming to the Patriots.

Wes Welker 2006 Stats:
16 Games Played
67 Catches
99 Targets
687 Yards
10.3 Avg
1 TD

Danny Amendola 2012 Stats:
11 Games Played
63 Catches
101 Targets
666 Yards
10.6 Avg
3 TD

You'll notice that the only really substantial difference in these figures is in the games played category, and this has been the point where Amendola and Welker diverge. In Welker's career he has missed 3 games in the regular season and 1 playoff game in 2009. By comparison, Amendola has missed 20 games over the past two seasons with the Rams. Maybe it's just dumb luck that Welker's only serious injury, a torn ACL/MCL, came in week 17 and Danny Amendola's dislocated elbow came in the first game of the season. The same could be said about the dislocated clavicle injury that kept Amendola out of 3 games last year.

So let's take a hard look at some of the reasons the Patriots chose to move on from Welker to Amendola.

1) Wes Welker is a few years older than Amendola. We haven't seen Wes' numbers decline substantially as he's gotten older, but age tends to hit wide receivers pretty hard. Wes may be coming off of his prime and Amendola may be just coming into his prime.

2) Although the sum total of Amendola's deal has him getting more money per year than Wes' deal, only $10 Million of Amendola's deal is guaranteed money. Amendola's deal may be structured in such a way that his cap hit is low and the deal is backloaded with non-guaranteed money and the Patriots could cut ties with him relatively easily after two seasons without much issue. We may see this when the more precise terms of the deal are known.

3) Maybe there's some things about Welker that Bill Belichick and the Patriots are aware of about Wes Welker that we as outsiders are not. Does Wes have some concussion issues that have been kept under wraps? Is Wes a pain in the ass in the locker room and constantly complaining to Bill about how he's not getting paid? Does Bill see something in the film/practice field that makes him think that Wes can't keep up his production for very much longer?

4) Some of the advanced stats show that Amendola has a much better drop percentage than Welker. Drops in key moments have been the bane of Welker's career, maybe the Patriots were fed up with this deficiency in his game.

All things considered, I think I still would have taken Wes Welker over Danny Amendola. I think Amendola will fill the role well if he manages to stay on the football field, but part of me wonders if maybe the Patriots are overthinking in this scenario. Welker was playing at a high level and assuming that he was asking for the same figures he got from the Broncos the money was pretty reasonable and didn't handcuff the Patriots in the long term. He has had 6 seasons of experience working in the Patriots system and with Tom Brady. Part of me thinks that if it's not broken then don't fix it.