NFL Draft

The NFL Draft is on tomorrow night at 8 and I'm looking forward to it. Your first round selection is almost always going to be an immediate impact player that's going to see some playing time as a rookie and will be an important part of your team for years to come. The problem is that the Patriots are incredibly hard to predict when it comes to their draft selections. They usually pick so late in the first round that their pick is often a result of who's left on the board. They also like to trade up or down in the first round which complicates matters further. Their pre-draft contact with players isn't usually a great indicator of their level of interest, neither is their projected positions of need. So, they pick whomever the best player on the board is, but it is hard to tell who they evaluate highly and where they pick often changes. Predicting the Patriots draft choices is like trying to hit a fly with a frisbee while blindfolded.

I think the most interesting thing about this draft will probably be whether they trade up or down in this draft. Bill traded up to get both Dont'a Hightower and Chandler Jones in last year's draft. I took this as a sign that Bill was cashing in the chips to some extent. For years Bill had turned his bonus first round pick he initially got from the Richard Seymour trade into an annuity. He would trade the first rounder for a second rounder that year and a first rounder the following year. Last year's draft was different and I think it indicates that Bill might be considering retiring in a few years and figured that this was a good time to cash in to get some impact players for the remainder of his time in New England. He wasn't stockpiling or building for the future anymore. Now, it's possible that he just held Jones and Hightower in such high regard that he felt they were worth giving up those assets. Perhaps he couldn't find a willing partner for his usual deal and had to use the pick. Maybe Bill felt that the 2013 draft class was going to be poor and didn't think that a first rounder in that draft was going to be worth it.

A lot of experts have talked down this draft class and said that it's weaker than past years. Compared to RGIII, Andrew Luck or even Cam Newton; Geno Smith and Matt Barkley aren't getting much hype. There are numerous reports about teams looking to trade down because of the lack of high quality talent at the top of the first round. Bill has always been one to buy low, so maybe he'll take this opportunity to trade up given that it's a buyers market for high first round picks.