One of the biggest names in the upcoming free agent market is going to be Baltimore's Ed Reed. Reed is just coming off of his first Super Bowl win and has been one of the best safeties in the game over the course of his 11 seasons in the league. His accolades are extensive:
9 Pro Bowl Appearances (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012)
8 All-Pro Selections (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011)
AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year (2004)
AFC Defensive Player of the Year (2004)
2-time NFL Alumni Defensive Back of the Year (2004, 2008)
3 Seasons as NFL Interceptions leader (2004, 2008, 2010)
When evaluating the possible free agent market and the needs of the New England Patriots this seemed like a good fit in terms of filling an area of need. The media ran with this and questioned Reed about how he felt about possibly playing for Bill Belichick.
"I could definitely play for coach Belichick," Reed said, Fox Sports reported. "He is a great coach. I'm sure he can help me to expand my football knowledge even more as a player and as a coach, so if I'm ever able to be around him, just like I was at the Pro Bowl, it's huge."
This was clearly the wrong answer from Reed only a few days before going into the Super Bowl and he later backed off these comments and gave the proper, less controversial response.
“Of course I want to stay in Baltimore,” Reed told The Boston Globe. “I was asked, would I play for Bill Belichick? Yes. What football players wouldn’t play for Coach Belichick? Will I be in New England? Most likely not. It’s just terrible that people get half the story. It’s even more bad when you hear the comments that they make towards you. But it comes with it, man.”
The respect has been reciprocated by Bill over the course of his career, even beyond his normal tire pumping of opponents. The Patriots could be playing Foxboro High School football team and I think Bill would still give the "Well, they're a good football team, they do a lot of things well..." that Patriots fans have come to know by heart. In an informal documentary setting, Bill seems to give more honest appraisals of his opinions than he does in a press conference setting. In "Bill Belichick: A Football Life" he's shown speaking at length about Ed Reed in his meeting with Tom Brady.
So, there's the argument that makes me think this deal could happen. There seems to be a genuine mutual respect and admiration between the Patriots/Bill Belichick and Ed Reed. The Patriots secondary is thin and the addition of an impact, veteran presence like Reed could really help this unit. Furthermore, with Joe Flacco about to win the lottery with a massive deal it's possible that salary cap issues may keep the Ravens from being able to afford Reed's services.
So what are the problems with this match made in heaven?
1) Age. Ed's put in 11 NFL seasons and it brings up questions about how much tread is left on the tires. How much more does he want to play and how much longer can he compete at a high level? There were some that speculated that Reed might choose to follow in teammate Ray Lewis' footsteps and finish on top, however, Reed has emphatically denied this.
2) Cost. Even at his age, Reed is likely going to command a top of the market deal no matter where he goes. The Patriots very rarely spend top of the market money on an outside free agent. Even those who have certainly paid their dues like Wes Welker have a hard time getting a proper payday out of the Patriots. The last time they notably broke the bank on a Ravens defensive free agent with Adalius Thomas the Patriots regretted making that move. They signed Thomas to a 5-year contract worth $35 million, including $20 million in guaranteed money and had to eat the last two seasons after cutting him just after the 2010 NFL draft. Of course Adalius Thomas is not Ed Reed, but Bill seems to have been wary of high price tag free agents ever since. The Patriots also have some decisions to make on their own high priced free agents with Aqib Talib and Wes Welker set to hit the open market.
3) Devin McCourty. I have never been a huge Devin McCourty fan, his performance has gone downhill ever since his pro bowl selection in his rookie year and he has never justified his first round selection, but I do feel he's really found a spot for himself at Free Safety. Wouldn't you know it, Ed Reed also plays Free Safety. If you brought Reed on board, McCourty would have to change positions again. Either returning to cornerback or switch to playing Strong Safety and pushing Steve Gregory out. I'm not sure how difficult the transition from FS to SS is, but I would imagine there would be some dropoff while McCourty learns to play the position.
If I had to guess, I would say there's about a 20% chance of this deal happening, 50% chance he goes back to the Ravens and 30% chance he ends up somewhere else in the league. Some have noted that Indianapolis Colts head coach Chuck Pagano has worked extensively with Reed in his previous job as the Ravens Defensive Coordinator and may be in the market for his services. ESPN's Pat Yasinskas noted that Reed is originally from Louisiana and may find the possibility of finishing his career close to his home appealing as the Saints also have need of some upgrades in their secondary.
No comments:
Post a Comment