Mar 4, 2013

Ravens Dramatically Overpay Joe Flacco


When Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco signs his six-year, $120.6 million contract today, $52 million of that is guaranteed, according to a report in USA Today. The Super Bowl MVP will receive $51 million over the first two years of the deal and $62 million over the first three years. 

It's a cap-friendly deal for the first two years, according to Sports Illustrated. Flacco will count $6.8 million against the Ravens' $123 million salary cap this year. That means Flacco takes up 5.5 percent of the cap for the upcoming season. Four other Ravens (Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Anquan Boldin and Marshal Yanda) all will have bigger cap numbers in 2013. 

Flacco's cap number makes a modest jump to $14.8 million in 2014. Where it gets tricky for the Ravens is in the fourth year of the contract, according to Peter King of SI. Flacco's cap number will balloon to $29 million. King estimates that will account for 22 percent of the cap in 2016. 

So, based on those figures, Flacco will make $62 million over the first three years (an average of $20.6 million) and will force the Ravens to rework his deal in 2016. And with Flacco being 31 at that point, which is still a prime age for a quarterback, don't expect him to accept a Tom Brady-like deal.

I believe this makes Joe Flacco the highest paid player in the NFL...I'm just gonna allow some time to let that sink in...
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First, I want to give some credit where credit is due. Joe Flacco has been a relatively consistent game manager with the ability to throw the deep ball on occasion. When the playoffs started he really elevated his game as they went through a brutal path to the Lombardi Trophy by beating Denver and New England on the road and eventually the Niners in the Super Bowl. As quick as I was to liken him to former Ravens Quarterback Trent Dilfer, it's not really a fair comparison. The Ravens had a good defense this season and they also stepped up their game for the playoffs, but the Baltimore Ravens defense that carried Trent Dilfer to the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl XXXV was on a completely different level. The 7 total points the Giants scored in that Super Bowl came as a result of a kickoff return touchdown.

With all that said, this is still a gross overpayment for a quarterback who has been fairly mediocre for the bulk of his career. Even this most recent regular season his numbers were mediocre at best. I'm a fan of the Total QBR metric as a way to evaluate quarterbacks, in this category he finished 25th, just below Jake Locker and above Michael Vick. In 2011 he finished 14th between Jay Cutler and Eli Manning. In his whole career he's never managed to crack the top 10. Have you ever heard anybody seriously discuss him as a potential league MVP candidate?

It's also not as though Flacco hasn't had pieces around him. Ray Rice provides a very legitimate threat on the ground to keep the defense honest and open up opportunities for Flacco. Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta have proven to be good receiving targets. The Ravens defense is consistently one of the best in the NFL.

This is probably going to get overlooked by Ravens fans as they're still basking in the glow of their recent Super Bowl win and apparently it's going to be a few years before this deal turns into a really nasty cap hit, but they should hate this deal. They paid top dollar for a mediocre quarterback and it's going to really handcuff them in terms of their ability to build through free agency when his cap number explodes.

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