The basic idea behind the theory is that after the Celtics lost in the conference semi-finals of the 2009 Playoffs a conscious decision was made to proactively preserve their aging superstars to reduce regular wear and tear on their bodies and minimize the risk of injury, at which time the Celtics would "flip the switch" and turn into a dark horse championship contender. Let's have a look at some of my crackpot evidence and reasoning.
The NBA regular season is a joke. Sixteen of the Thirty NBA Teams make the playoffs. That's 53%. That's more than half. It's identical to hockey, but compare that to the MLB and NFL Playoffs. In the NFL the regular season has a huge impact on the Playoffs. Only twelve of the thirty-two (37.5%) NFL teams make the playoffs. Add to this that in the NFL a first round bye for the top two seeds in each conference is a massive advantage in such a physically punishing sport. Also, consider that in the NFL only one game is played per round makes having home field advantage a MUCH larger incentive. By comparison, in the NBA having a higher playoff seed determines the location of a final deciding game IF such a game is even necessary. Prior to last season, baseball had the most competition for playoff spots with only eight of the thirty (26.7%) MLB teams making the playoffs. They augmented this number to ten teams last season, but that's still the lowest percentage of teams making the postseason of any of the major american sports (33.3%) and they simultaneously built in the advantage of the division winning teams being able to avoid a one-game elimination series. Despite having a very similar system, even hockey offers a greater incentive to get a higher seed as the bracket is reseeded after the first round to ensure that the highest seeds get to play against the weakest remaining seed. In basketball the bracket is followed without a reseeding. Essentially, of all the major american sports there is none where it is easier to qualify for the playoffs than the NBA and in no other sport does your seeding position matter less than it does in the NBA.
With this in mind, after Kevin Garnett went down in the 2009 season and an early exit from the playoffs in the second round Doc saw a missed opportunity. He saw a team that was very reliant on three aging Hall of Famers to be successful and he made a conscious decision to sacrifice regular season wins in the hopes of preserving his aging superstars until the games that really matter in the postseason. Let's look at how the season proceed from there:
2009-10 Season: the Celtics limp into the playoffs as a 4th seed with a disappointing 50-32 record, a full 12 games lower than their regular season record the previous season. They hit their worst 10 game stretch of the season at 3-7 and many assume they're too old and washed up.
2010 Playoffs: The Celtics flip the switch and turn it on in the playoffs. They cruise through 5 seed Miami 4-1, 1 seed Cleveland 4-2 and 2 seed Orlando 4-2. They lose to the Lakers in the finals by a slim margin in game 7.
2010-11 Season: the Celtics improve by six games on their previous season finishing 56-26 and go into the playoffs as a 3 seed. The Celtics again finish on a bad note going 5-5 in their last 10 games.
2011 Playoffs: The Celtics are able to sweep the Knicks, but can't stand up to the new big 3 in the next round and lose to Lebron and the Heat.
2011-12 Season: The Celtics finish the lockout shortened season with the lowest win% of the big 3 era at 39-27 and secure a 4th seed.
2012 Playoffs: The Celtics beat 5th seed Atlanta in 6 games (it's worth noting that Atlanta actually finished with a better record than the Celtics in the regular season) and catch a break in the second round as Derrick Rose is hurt and the 1st seeded Bulls fall apart without him. Because there is no reseed in the NBA the Celtics catch a break in the second round and play the 8th seeded Philadelphia. Finally, the Celtics lose in the conference finals to Lebron and the Heat when the Heat manage to win back to back games after going down 3-2
I think the Celtics that you see in the Regular season is just a watered down version of what this team is capable of as they seem to constantly perform better in the Playoffs than their regular season/playoff seeding would lead you to believe. It's been done subtly as throwing regular season games to rest starters is a punishable offense by the NBA (I believe it came up with the Spurs earlier this season). I think it also helps if you win enough to keep the fans/media from freaking out. There hasn't been a dramatic dropoff in the average minutes by Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen or Paul Pierce, but I think it shines through in the win totals.
What does that suggest for this season? I think when Rondo went down it forced the Celtics to prematurely flip the switch. They needed to keep the fans on board that a championship was possible even without Rondo, get themselves back on pace for a playoff spot and keep Danny from breaking up the team to start a rebuilding cycle. Now that the trade deadline has passed I'd expect the Celtics to do the bare minimum to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, even when they go into playoff mode I still don't think they'll have what it takes to beat Miami when they meet them in either the first or second round.
No comments:
Post a Comment